E-ISSN 2705-3954 | ISSN 0794-4756
 

Original Research 


APPLICATION OF SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) FOR FLOWS OF RIVER KADUNA

Lawal MAMUDU , Alhassan YAHAYA, Salisu DANAZUMI, Lawal MAMUDU.

Abstract
Using 25 years monthly discharge data (1988 to 2013), the discharge of River Kaduna was investigated for the possibility of accurate forecast. With the aid of ADF (Augmented Dickey-Fuller) test, auto-correlation and partial auto-correlation functions the discharge was found to exhibit a stochastic non-stationary seasonal time series behaviour which becomes stationary after first seasonal differencing. Based on this, the study predicted the discharge of the river from 2014 to 2018 using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model and validates this with the actual discharge of the river for the corresponding period. Hence, the study concluded that SARIMA (1,0,1)(0,1,1)12 mode is the most appropriate based on the selection criteria, and could adequately predict the discharge of River Kaduna with minimal errors.

Key words: SARIMA, River Kaduna, Discharge, Time series


 
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How to Cite this Article
Pubmed Style

LM, YAHAYA A, DANAZUMI S, MAMUDU L, . APPLICATION OF SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) FOR FLOWS OF RIVER KADUNA. NJE. 2021; 28(2): 84-90.


Web Style

LM, YAHAYA A, DANAZUMI S, MAMUDU L, . APPLICATION OF SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) FOR FLOWS OF RIVER KADUNA. http://www.njeabu.com.ng/?mno=108688 [Access: September 08, 2021].


AMA (American Medical Association) Style

LM, YAHAYA A, DANAZUMI S, MAMUDU L, . APPLICATION OF SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) FOR FLOWS OF RIVER KADUNA. NJE. 2021; 28(2): 84-90.



Vancouver/ICMJE Style

LM, YAHAYA A, DANAZUMI S, MAMUDU L, . APPLICATION OF SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) FOR FLOWS OF RIVER KADUNA. NJE. (2021), [cited September 08, 2021]; 28(2): 84-90.



Harvard Style

, L. M., YAHAYA, A., DANAZUMI, S., MAMUDU, L. & (2021) APPLICATION OF SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) FOR FLOWS OF RIVER KADUNA. NJE, 28 (2), 84-90.



Turabian Style

, Lawal MAMUDU, Alhassan YAHAYA, Salisu DANAZUMI, Lawal MAMUDU, and . 2021. APPLICATION OF SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) FOR FLOWS OF RIVER KADUNA. Nigerian Journal of Engineering, 28 (2), 84-90.



Chicago Style

, Lawal MAMUDU, Alhassan YAHAYA, Salisu DANAZUMI, Lawal MAMUDU, and . "APPLICATION OF SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) FOR FLOWS OF RIVER KADUNA." Nigerian Journal of Engineering 28 (2021), 84-90.



MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

, Lawal MAMUDU, Alhassan YAHAYA, Salisu DANAZUMI, Lawal MAMUDU, and . "APPLICATION OF SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) FOR FLOWS OF RIVER KADUNA." Nigerian Journal of Engineering 28.2 (2021), 84-90. Print.



APA (American Psychological Association) Style

, L. M., YAHAYA, A., DANAZUMI, S., MAMUDU, L. & (2021) APPLICATION OF SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) FOR FLOWS OF RIVER KADUNA. Nigerian Journal of Engineering, 28 (2), 84-90.